Taylor Swift And The Live Music Slump
Halfway through 2025, touring numbers are down industrywide—and the decline is even steeper when you properly account for music's biggest superstar.
I’ll never forget my first big concert—Pearl Jam, Madison Square Garden, 1999—and, with similar fondness, I’ll always remember my initial show after the Covid-19 lockdowns during the “Hot Vax Summer” of 2021. The artist was Brandi Carlile, the venue was Forest Hills Stadium, the afterparty was near the pool in the back. By the end of the night, just about every remaining reveler ended up in the warm, generously chlorinated water.
The next couple of years resulted in record numbers for the live music business, as acts finally got back on the road to fulfill a pandemic’s worth of pent-up demand. After plummeting in 2020, the top 100 tours grossed $6.4 billion in 2022, up from a $4.9 billion in 2019. The boom continued with $7.5 billion in 2023 and $9.1 billion in 2024.
Four years later, though, the party seems to be ending. According to recently released figures from Billboard Boxscore, the top ten tours grossed $1 billion in the first half of 2025, down from $1.4 billion for the same period last year, a dip just shy of 30%. Missing in the industry analysis is a crucial fact: The drop is even steeper if you account for Taylor Swift. Allow me to explain.
Most acts report their concert grosses to services like Boxscore and Pollstar, but Swift did not do that for her 2023-2024 Eras Tour. Her production company did confirm the final tally to the New York Times: a record-setting $2,077,618,725, double the size of the next-highest total in history.
As a result, the industrywide touring numbers from last year and the year before are actually even bigger than they appear to be. And the difference between the first half of last year and the first half of this year is even more stark. Add Swift’s haul of roughly $500 million for that period to the top ten tours of last year (the aforementioned $1.4 billion), and you get $1.9 billion. The first six months of 2025 is half that.
Forget the spin—there should be no debate that the post-pandemic touring boom is over. But is the live music industry in deep trouble? I don’t think so. What we’re seeing seems to be more of a correction that a crash.
During the Covid lockdowns, consumers saved money while staying at home. They emerged with more expendable income, itching to see shows. Musicians, who mostly rely on live music income, gladly obliged. Eventually, supply caught up to demand. Last year, three acts grossed more than $380 million. Nobody is on pace to come within $100 million of that in 2025 (though Beyoncé will, as most of her Cowboy Carter Tour dates are in the second half).
Over the past year, several big names have canceled tour dates or downsized venues amid reports of weak ticket sales. It’s possible that concertgoers who’ve had to shell out four-figure sums just to get in the door for tip-top tours decided to skip the next tier of artists.
There are plenty of non-musical factors affecting the situation as well. In addition to inflation, higher living costs, and greater income inequality, the economic chaos of the past few months has left many consumers cautious.
The live music industry seems to have anticipated the current scenario, with fewer big shows competing with each other. The top ten tours in the first half of the year accounted for 245 shows, down from 442 last year.
The numbers should look better in the second half, with a full slate of Beyoncé tour dates. That could bring the 2025 totals for the top 100 tours fairly close to last year’s $9.1 billion.
I suspect we will fall short of that figure—which is actually more like $10 billion, when you account for Taylor Swift—confirming that the post-Covid boom is over.
But even if the tally falls back to 2023’s $7.5 billion, just remember that 25% less than the 2024 number is still roughly 25% more than the 2019 total. And that’s still something worth jumping in the pool about.
Zack O’Malley Greenburg is the author of five books, including the Jay-Z biography Empire State of Mind: How Jay-Z Went from Street Corner to Corner Office. His work has appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, Vibe, Rolling Stone, Vanity Fair, and Forbes, where he spent a decade as senior editor of media & entertainment.
BOOKS BY ZACK O’MALLEY GREENBURG
Empire State of Mind: How Jay-Z Went from Street Corner to Corner Office
A-List Angels: How a Band of Actors, Artists & Athletes Hacked Silicon Valley
3 Kings: Diddy, Dr. Dre, Jay-Z & Hip-Hop’s Multibillion-Dollar Rise
Michael Jackson, Inc.: The Rise, Fall & Rebirth of a Billion-Dollar Empire
We Are All Musicians Now: The Canaries In The Coal Mine Of Business
